Wales did not deserver to get a 2nd Yellow - but Fiji deserved none at all
What it says
Fiji gave away 9 penalties, Wales gave away 17
rom historical games it is quite unusual for a team who gave away 9 penalties to get a yellow (especially since there was no 'foul play')
That being said, getting a single yellow after 17 penalites is about right
I cannot judge the nature of the penalties across the historic games (e.g high tackles, etc.) but this is on average
How it was done
I analysed 303 games (only teams playing in the current world cup) since 2019
I looked at how many penalties each team gave away in each game and how many yellow
cards they received. From that I did a logistic regression and some simple stats.