Rugby World Cup Predictions Week 3 (18/09 - 24/09)
A/B team predictions
Predictions for this week
We’re back with a more competitive week this week with a couple of spicy games - Argentina v Samoa, South Africa vs Ireland, Wales vs Australia. Given how close these games are, I have included the percentage likelihood for each team to win to give more transparency.
Also, I have also introduced some logic around each team’s A vs B strength team to account for a team not putting out their full strength team.
Detailed Stats
R.O.G (Rugby Outcome Generator) vs The Bookies
Appraisal of Last Week
I have to admit as the results started rolling in this week I was starting get a bit sweaty that is was going to be a NZvsNAM style blowout where we were Namibia, but looking at the list of results now I am relatively happy
Predicted 7/8 games correctly
Given that there was only one or two genuinely contested games this week it was just an ok result
However in the context that everyone else also missed the upset I can’t be too disappointed
Matched the bookies pretty well on the handicap
I was right on 3 games on handicap, bookies were right on 4, we were the same on 1
Still have the same issue where I underestimate the score difference for big wins (e.g New Zealand) - some further work need
