Rugby World Cup Predictions Week 5 (02/10 - 08/10)

Predictions for this week

I think this going to be a week where everyone is quite nervous despite the fact that most of the games look relatively straightforward. The only one that is up in the air is Japan vs Argentina.

Almost all the team will be in ‘knock-out’ mode - this is a game that they must win. However they also hope they have a 3 further knock-out games to play. It will be tough balance the win at all costs mentality, with the need to avoid injuries and bans. The hill only get steeper from here on out.

I am also a bit nervous as ROG is incredibly confident in the predictions this week (99% chance for Ireland to win !?!). Let’s hope that his confidence is not misplaced…

Detailed Stats

R.O.G (Rugby Outcome Generator) vs The Bookies

Appraisal of Last Week

I am happy with how last week went. I called one game incorrectly, Japan vs Samoa, and even then it was a coin-toss (ROG predicted a 43% win chance for Japan)

Similarly I kept pace with the bookies on the handicap so I can’t be annoyed.

ROG is still marginally more accurate than the bookies over the course of the tournament, and given the fact we are both calling the same winners this week that is unlikely to change

Model Accuracy

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Rugby World Cup Predictions Quarter Finals (09/10 - 15/10)

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Rugby World Cup Predictions Week 4 (24/09 - 01/10)